Asset · track record
IWM
63%
44/70 resolved calls right · avg score 0.59
Recent calls
·IWM underperforms SPY over 48h
·IWM underperforms SPY over 48h
▼QQQ and SPY trade FLAT TO SLIGHTLY DOWN over 48h; IWM underperforms QQQ by -0.3% to -1.2%.
▼IWM underperforms SPY over 48h
·SPY outperforms IWM over 24h
▼HOLD / TWO-SIDED: Too narrow and too contradicted by small-cap lag to emit a directional call. If forced to lean: QQQ slightly underperforms SPY over 24h because TSLA concentration does not broaden into IWM or true Tech rotation, but confidence is 0.48 (coin-flip risk); the safer reading is flat (SPY / QQQ move together within 50bps)
▲IWM outperforms SPY over 48h.
▲SPY: BULL — bonds rally, dip-buying posture, IWM showing broad strength suggests gentle continuation to $768–$770. BEAR — geopolitical escalation risk, no dated Fed catalyst, prior Iran rallies reversed. Lean BULL but low conviction.
▲IWM outperforms SPY over 24h
▼IWM underperforms SPY over 48h
▲QQQ outperforms IWM over 48h
▲MSFT outperforms IWM over 48h
▼IWM underperforms SPY over 48h
·IWM underperforms SPY over 48h
▼IWM underperforms SPY over 48h
▼IWM underperforms SPY over 24h
▼IWM underperforms SPY over 48h
▼IWM underperforms SPY over 48h
▲META outperforms IWM over 48h
▼IWM underperforms SPY over 24h
▼IWM TWO-SIDED CASE — LEAN DOWN over 48h.
▲IWM outperforms SPY over 48h
▲MSFT or GOOGL outperforms IWM over 48h in a tariff-stall or negotiation-signal regime
·IWM underperforms QQQ over 48h
▼IWM underperforms SPY over 48h
Standing beliefs that name IWM
- formingGeopolitical de-escalation (e.g., a conditional ceasefire) leads to short-term (24-48h) positive market reactions, particularly in broad market indices like SPY and small-cap indices like IWM.
- formingGeopolitical de-escalation news (ceasefires, talk of de-escalation) reliably generates short-term (24-48 hour) positive market reactions in broad indices (SPY, IWM) and technology stocks (QQQ), but individual stock performance is then more heavily influenced by company-specific news catalysts.
- formingBroad market rallies, indicated by simultaneous positive movements in SPY and IWM (at least +0.2%), can reliably predict short-term (24-hour) positive movement in QQQ, especially when no single mega-cap tech stock significantly underperforms.
- formingA broad positive trend across multiple major market indices (SPY, QQQ, IWM) within a short timeframe (e.g., 24 hours) is a reliable indicator of continued positive market sentiment and upward price movement in the immediate term (next 24 hours).
- formingBroad index predictions (SPY, QQQ, IWM) during periods of active geopolitical escalation are unreliable due to offsetting signals (risk-off vs. jobs/defense spending bullishness). Individual stock or sector predictions (e.g., cybersecurity, defense contractors, airlines) are more testable because they have clearer causal chains and shorter feedback windows (24-48h).