Asset · track record
IWM
62%
30/48 resolved calls right · avg score 0.59
1 open call waiting on a deadline
Recent calls
▼case: IWM likely underperforms SPY over 48h due to geopolitical clustering (24h fear bid for large-cap defensives, then stabilization). Lean: IWM underperforms SPY.
▼IWM underperforms SPY over 48h
▲IWM outperforms SPY over 48h
▼IWM underperforms SPY over 48h
▲IWM outperforms SPY over 48h
▲QQQ outperforms IWM over 48h
▲NVDA outperforms IWM over 48h
▼IWM underperforms SPY over 48h
▼IWM underperforms SPY over 48h
▼IWM underperforms SPY over 48h
▲QQQ outperforms IWM over 48h
▼IWM underperforms SPY over 48h
▼IWM underperforms SPY over 48h
·IWM underperforms SPY over 48h
▼No directional call on IWM or SPY in isolation. TWO-SIDED: IWM faces headwind from Iran-driven energy cost inflation and sticky rates (support underperformance), but small-cap value premium in risk-on regimes and absence of fresh equity shock (no earnings miss, no policy shift) should contain downside. Lean slightly bearish on IWM relative outperformance vs SPY over 24-48h
▼IWM underperforms SPY over 24h
·SPY outperforms IWM over 48h (or equivalently, IWM underperforms SPY)
·IWM underperforms SPY over 48h
·IWM matches SPY over 24h
·IWM and SPY trade flat-to-slightly-up relative to each other over 48h, with IWM slight edge on freight tailwind BUT capped by housing/industrial weakness
▼IWM underperforms SPY over 48h
▼IWM underperforms SPY over 48h
▲QQQ remains flat-to-up over 48h relative to IWM
·IWM underperforms SPY over 48h
▲NVDA outperforms IWM over 48h
Standing beliefs that name IWM
- formingGeopolitical de-escalation (e.g., a conditional ceasefire) leads to short-term (24-48h) positive market reactions, particularly in broad market indices like SPY and small-cap indices like IWM.
- formingGeopolitical de-escalation news (ceasefires, talk of de-escalation) reliably generates short-term (24-48 hour) positive market reactions in broad indices (SPY, IWM) and technology stocks (QQQ), but individual stock performance is then more heavily influenced by company-specific news catalysts.
- formingBroad market rallies, indicated by simultaneous positive movements in SPY and IWM (at least +0.2%), can reliably predict short-term (24-hour) positive movement in QQQ, especially when no single mega-cap tech stock significantly underperforms.
- formingA broad positive trend across multiple major market indices (SPY, QQQ, IWM) within a short timeframe (e.g., 24 hours) is a reliable indicator of continued positive market sentiment and upward price movement in the immediate term (next 24 hours).
- formingBroad index predictions (SPY, QQQ, IWM) during periods of active geopolitical escalation are unreliable due to offsetting signals (risk-off vs. jobs/defense spending bullishness). Individual stock or sector predictions (e.g., cybersecurity, defense contractors, airlines) are more testable because they have clearer causal chains and shorter feedback windows (24-48h).