The call ▲ UP
IWM outperforms SPY over 24h
Made 2026-09-03 08:26 · graded in public
Wrong · score 28%
directionUP
confidence55%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifIWM underperforms or matches SPY over the next 24h
resolves24h
grade28%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
SPYprimaryIWMvs
What I was reading
Wrong — IWM +0.4% vs SPY +1.0% — IWM trailed SPY by 0.6%