Pre-registered · evaluated hourly
Tripwires
Every open call pre-commits the exact observation that would flip it. The hourly cycle checks the live price feed — watch each one stay armed, trip, or expire untripped.
11 armed298 tripped444 expired untripped
Armed 11
flips if GOOGL matches or outperforms SPY over the 48h window
now: GOOGL -3.0% vs SPY -0.3% (spread -2.6%) resolves in ~2h checked 15m ago
flips if GOOGL outperforms SPY or matches SPY performance over the 48h window
now: GOOGL -3.0% vs SPY -0.3% (spread -2.6%) resolves in ~4h checked 15m ago
flips if META underperforms QQQ, or the two trade flat-to-correlated over 48h
now: META +1.2% vs QQQ -0.6% (spread +1.8%) resolves in ~4h checked 15m ago
flips if SPY closes up 0.5% or more over 48h, erasing geopolitical bid for defensive positioning
now: SPY -0.3% vs MSFT +0.8% (spread -1.1%) resolves in ~6h checked 15m ago
flips if META underperforms SPY or closes red while SPY closes green over 48h
now: META +1.2% vs SPY -0.3% (spread +1.5%) resolves in ~6h checked 15m ago
flips if META underperforms or matches SPY over 48h
now: META +0.7% vs SPY -0.3% (spread +1.0%) resolves in ~14h checked 15m ago
flips if META underperforms or matches QQQ over 48h window
now: META +0.7% vs QQQ -0.3% (spread +1.0%) resolves in ~15h checked 15m ago
flips if SPY outperforms or matches QQQ over 48h
now: QQQ -0.3% vs SPY -0.3% (spread -0.0%) resolves in ~18h checked 15m ago
flips if META underperforms or matches SPY over 48h
now: META +0.7% vs SPY -0.3% (spread +1.0%) resolves in ~19h checked 15m ago
flips if NVDA underperforms or matches SPY return over 48h window
now: NVDA -0.0% vs SPY -0.3% (spread +0.3%) resolves in ~20h checked 15m ago
flips if META underperforms or matches SPY return over 48h window
now: META +0.7% vs SPY -0.3% (spread +1.0%) resolves in ~20h checked 15m ago
Tripped 298
Tripped 13h ago
META +0.8% vs SPY -0.4% (spread +1.2%) as of 2026-08-11 17:20Z — past the 1% band against the call
Tripped 13h ago
XLE +1.1% vs SPY -0.3% (spread +1.4%) as of 2026-08-11 17:20Z — past the 1% band against the call
Call graded Wrong (25%)
Tripped 2d ago
bitcoin -1.4% vs entry as of 2026-08-10 16:17Z — past the 1% band against the call
Call graded Wrong (25%)
Tripped 2d ago
META +1.8% vs SPY +0.4% (spread +1.4%) as of 2026-08-10 15:17Z — past the 1% band against the call
Call graded Wrong (20%)
Tripped 2d ago
AMD -1.6% vs SPY +0.1% (spread -1.7%) as of 2026-08-10 15:17Z — past the 1% band against the call
Call graded Wrong (20%)
Tripped 2d ago
AMD -0.8% vs SPY +0.2% (spread -1.1%) as of 2026-08-10 15:17Z — past the 1% band against the call
Call graded Wrong (27%)
Tripped 2d ago
ethereum -2.1% vs bitcoin -0.7% (spread -1.5%) as of 2026-08-10 15:17Z — past the 1% band against the call
Call graded Wrong (28%)
Tripped 2d ago
NVDA -1.3% vs SPY -0.0% (spread -1.3%) as of 2026-08-10 15:17Z — past the 1% band against the call
Expired untripped 444
Expired untripped
Pre-registered: COIN matches or outperforms QQQ over 48h, or outperforms on higher relative volume
Call graded Right (83%)
Expired untripped
Pre-registered: XLE underperforms or matches SPY over the 48h window
Call graded Right (100%)
Expired untripped
Pre-registered: QQQ outperforms or matches SPY over the 48h window
Expired untripped
Pre-registered: IWM matches or outperforms SPY over 48h close
Expired untripped
Pre-registered: META underperforms or matches QQQ close-to-close
Call graded Right (75%)
Expired untripped
Pre-registered: NVDA underperforms QQQ or closes flat/down while QQQ is flat-to-up
Expired untripped
Pre-registered: QQQ closes flat-to-positive relative to SPY over the 48h window following the jobs print (Aug 7 open through Aug 9 close)
Expired untripped
Pre-registered: QQQ outperforms or matches SPY over the 48h window, or SMCI 8-K is disclosed as clearly positive earnings/guidance and semis rally