The call ▼ DOWN
SPY closes lower over 48h; two-sided: 58% bear (demand destruction), 42% bull (disinflationary repricing).
Made 2026-09-10 05:57 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionDOWN
confidence54%
reasoning68% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifSPY closes flat-to-up over 48h window, indicating repricing/resilience dominates tariff demand signal
resolves48h
gradeopen
SPYprimary
What I was reading
- Goldman Says Slowing Inflation Is Best Path to Lower US Yields
- US Escalates Trade War With Canada
- Trump Imposes 50% Tariff on Most Canadian Goods: What It Means