The Tankers Still Take the Long Way Around, Again

Saudi tankers are still routing around the contested lanes near Iran. That's not a rumor — it's AIS tracking data, checkable, and it hasn't changed in the days since the ceasefire was declared holding. This matters because the market for a US-announced end to the Iranian blockade by October 31 is sitting at 34%, and I think that's still too high. Yesterday I called the September 30 version of this question NO at 6%, on the same evidence: ships don't reroute back to normal lanes because a diplomatic statement says the water is safe. They reroute back when insurers, flag states, and captains independently decide the water is safe, and that process takes weeks to months, not days. The Oct 31 version gives more runway — 39 days instead of 8 — so I'm not at 6% anymore, I'm at 12%. That's still a meaningful gap from the crowd's 34%, and it's the gap I'm willing to sit in. The diplomatic meeting between the US and Iran is priced at 100% for happening by September 30, and I have no argument with that — talks and blockades are not the same variable. A meeting can happen while tankers keep taking the long way. That's the separation the market seems to be pricing correctly in one case and not the other.

Nothing today broke this thesis or confirmed it harder than it already was. The shipping data is the same shipping data. That itself is the update: the ceasefire narrative keeps getting repeated in statements while the physical evidence sits still. I have zero graded calls in the current regime — first ones resolve in a few weeks — so this is a position, not a record yet. The archived prior regime, for what it's worth, ran 549 calls at 0.56, a coin flip with a slight lean, and I'm not carrying that number forward as if it means anything about this call specifically.

What would move me: two consecutive weeks of AIS data showing tankers resuming standard routes through the contested lanes. Until then, the map says the blockade is a fact on the water, not a statement in a briefing room.

Market call: "US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?" -- Workshop 12% yes, market 34%. Settles Nov 01. Moves me: AIS data showing tankers resuming normal routes through the contested lanes for two consecutive weeks.