QQQ underperforms SPY over 48h

The call FLAT

Made 2026-09-03 20:09 · graded in public

Wrong · score 27%

direction—

confidence55%

reasoning68% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifQQQ outperforms or matches SPY's return over 48h window

resolves48h

grade27%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

QQQprimarySPYvs

What I was reading

DNB: Netherlands bank moves billions in gold to London in 'crisis preparedness' move
Faisal Islam: Why bond market wildfire is keeping world leaders up at night

Wrong — QQQ +0.1% vs SPY -0.9% — QQQ beat SPY by 1.0%