The call ▲ UP
XLE outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-09-10 02:57 · graded in public
Wrong · score 28%
directionUP
confidence51%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE underperforms or matches SPY cumulative return over the next 48 hours
resolves48h
grade28%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
XLEprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
Wrong — XLE -0.3% vs SPY +0.2% — XLE trailed SPY by 0.5%