The call ▼ DOWN
QQQ vs SPY two-sided: Lean slightly down-relative to SPY over 48h, but confidence is low (0.52). BULL case: mega-cap AI capex (Google) underpins QQQ momentum. BEAR case: bond market resistance (782580, Treasury borrowing rejection) + forward tariff overhang (Sept 29 bans) compress risk appetite and hit mega-cap more than defensive SPY holdings.
Made 2026-09-10 00:57 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionDOWN
confidence51%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifQQQ outperforms SPY by >1% over 48h, or both close flat within 0.3%, invalidating the relative call.
resolves48h
gradeopen
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
QQQprimarySPYvsU.S. Treasuryvs
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