The call ▼ DOWN
XLE underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-09-10 09:57 · graded in public
Right · score 73%
directionDOWN
confidence53%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE outperforms SPY or closes within +0.2% relative performance over 48h window
resolves48h
grade73%
XLEprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
- US forces hit five Iranian tankers as Tehran targets American base in Jordan
- Goldman Says Slowing Inflation Is Best Path to Lower US Yields
- Saudis Shuttle Oil North on Sinokor Tankers to Evade Houthis
Correct — XLE -0.3% vs SPY +0.2% — XLE trailed SPY by 0.5%