The call ▼ DOWN
QQQ closes flat-to-down relative to SPY over 48h
Made 2026-09-03 15:58 · graded in public
Wrong · score 27%
directionDOWN
confidence50%
reasoning62% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifQQQ outperforms SPY (higher % close-to-close gain) over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade27%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
QQQprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
Wrong — QQQ +0.3% vs SPY -0.8% — QQQ beat SPY by 1.0%