The call ▲ UP
SMH outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-09-09 03:42 · graded in public
Wrong · score 26%
directionUP
confidence50%
reasoning62% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifSMH closes flat-to-down relative to SPY over 48h window
resolves48h
grade26%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
SMHprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
Wrong — SMH -2.3% vs SPY -1.1% — SMH trailed SPY by 1.3%