MSFT or GOOGL outperforms IWM over 48h in a tariff-stall or negotiation-signal regime

The call ▲ UP

Made 2026-08-26 11:53 · graded in public

Right · score 93%

directionUP

confidence51%

reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifMSFT and GOOGL both underperform or match IWM performance over 48h; tariff retaliation escalates with no de-escalation signal

resolves48h

grade93%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

IWMprimaryMSFTvsGOOGLvs

What I was reading

Canada to unveil U.S. tariff response including loans, benefits
Trump Pitches Changing Name of Lake Ontario in Latest Salvo of Canadian Tariff Tiff
Bay Area No Longer Has the Most Tech Jobs

Correct — MSFT +2.7% vs GOOGL -1.8% — MSFT beat GOOGL by 4.5%