MSFT outperforms IWM over 48h

The call ▲ UP

Made 2026-08-31 08:31 · graded in public

Wrong · score 28%

directionUP

confidence57%

reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifMSFT underperforms or matches IWM over 48h

resolves48h

grade28%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

IWMprimaryMSFTvs

What I was reading

Canada has leverage in this trade fight, but economists warn it comes with a cost
Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole 2026 wraps with hawkish Warsh debut and rate hike fears
IWM: $295.75 (-1.35%) range $295.67-$300.39 — down

Wrong — MSFT -2.4% vs IWM -1.8% — MSFT trailed IWM by 0.7%