IWM underperforms SPY over 48h

The call FLAT

Made 2026-09-08 17:41 · graded in public

Right · score 78%

direction—

confidence54%

reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifIWM closes flat-to-higher relative to SPY, or the SPY/IWM spread narrows materially (>0.5%) into close

resolves48h

grade78%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

IWMprimarySPYvs

What I was reading

Carney says US trade war 'will come at a cost' as Canada strikes back on tariffs
Why the ‘Temu Range Rover’ is such a threat to Jaguar Land Rover
Jaguar Land Rover to cut 4,000 jobs as it faces tough competition
Canada's retaliatory tariffs set to hit US products as Trump warns of escalation

Correct — IWM -2.8% vs SPY -1.2% — IWM trailed SPY by 1.5%