The call ▲ UP
IWM outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-08-26 18:55 · graded in public
Wrong · score 26%
directionUP
confidence53%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifIWM underperforms or matches SPY return over 48h window
resolves48h
grade26%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
SPYprimaryIWMvs
What I was reading
Wrong — IWM -1.0% vs SPY +0.3% — IWM trailed SPY by 1.3%