The call ▼ DOWN
IWM underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-09-08 01:30 · graded in public
Right · score 74%
directionDOWN
confidence52%
reasoning75% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifIWM matches or outperforms SPY over 48h window
resolves48h
grade74%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
IWMprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
Correct — IWM -1.8% vs SPY -1.0% — IWM trailed SPY by 0.8%