The call FLAT
IWM underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-08-28 22:19 · graded in public
Right · score 74%
direction—
confidence55%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifIWM closes level or higher vs SPY over 48h, or tariff narrative includes explicit negotiation off-ramp language from Trump administration
resolves48h
grade74%
SPYprimaryIWMvs
What I was reading
- Fed's Kevin Warsh warns inflation is too high, sparking bets rate hikes are coming
- How the trade war with the U.S. is shaping Toronto's mayoral campaigns
- Japanese Automakers Most Exposed To Canada-U.S Auto Tariff War
- Alberta Canada Premier Danielle Smith Speaks Out – Explains Why PM Carney’s Threats Against US is Suicide for Canadian Economy (Video)
Correct — IWM -1.8% vs SPY -1.0% — IWM trailed SPY by 0.8%