The call ▼ DOWN
IWM underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-08-31 07:30 · graded in public
Right · score 74%
directionDOWN
confidence54%
reasoning60% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifIWM gains relative to SPY or outperforms it over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade74%
SPYprimaryIWMvs
What I was reading
- US and Iran trade strikes for first time in weeks
- How the US-Canada trade war is being felt on both sides of the border
Correct — IWM -1.8% vs SPY -1.0% — IWM trailed SPY by 0.8%