The call FLAT
IWM underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-09-08 19:42 · graded in public
Right · score 77%
direction—
confidence50%
reasoning45% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifIWM outperforms SPY or matches SPY's move over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade77%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
IWMprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
Correct — IWM -2.6% vs SPY -1.2% — IWM trailed SPY by 1.4%