The call ▲ UP
SPY: BULL — bonds rally, dip-buying posture, IWM showing broad strength suggests gentle continuation to $768–$770. BEAR — geopolitical escalation risk, no dated Fed catalyst, prior Iran rallies reversed. Lean BULL but low conviction.
Made 2026-09-03 08:26 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionUP
confidence52%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifSPY closes flat-to-down over 24h OR breaks below $762
resolves24h
gradeopen
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
IWMprimaryFederal ReservementionedIranmentioned
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