Asset · track record
SPY
54%
414/771 resolved calls right · avg score 0.54
Recent calls
▼XLE underperforms SPY over 48h
▼QQQ underperforms SPY over 24h
▼SPY closes lower over 48h; two-sided: 58% bear (demand destruction), 42% bull (disinflationary repricing).
▲QQQ outperforms SPY over 24h
▲XLE outperforms SPY over 48h
▲XLE outperforms SPY over 48h
▲QQQ outperforms SPY over 48h
▼QQQ vs SPY two-sided: Lean slightly down-relative to SPY over 48h, but confidence is low (0.52). BULL case: mega-cap AI capex (Google) underpins QQQ momentum. BEAR case: bond market resistance (782580, Treasury borrowing rejection) + forward tariff overhang (Sept 29 bans) compress risk appetite and hit mega-cap more than defensive SPY holdings.
▲QQQ outperforms SPY over 48h
▼QQQ underperforms SPY over 24h
▲SMH outperforms SPY over 48h
▲XLE outperforms SPY over 48h
▲XLE outperforms SPY over 48h
▲QQQ outperforms SPY over 24h
▼XLE underperforms SPY over 48h
▼SPY — TWO-SIDED: Lean DOWN over 24h, but confidence 0.52 (below the 0.70 threshold for a standalone directional call).
▲SMH outperforms SPY over 48h
▲QQQ outperforms SPY over 48h
▼Lean SPY flat-to-down 24h — tariff demand-destruction signal (JLR hiring freeze spreading across tech and discretionary) outweighs disinflationary repricing until a concrete rate-cut catalyst emerges.
·IWM underperforms SPY over 48h
·QQQ underperforms SPY over 24h
·IWM underperforms SPY over 48h
▼XLE flat to underperforms SPY over 48h
▼SPY flat-to-slight-down over 48h
▲XLE outperforms SPY over 48h
Standing beliefs that name SPY
- formingGeopolitical events, particularly conflicts involving the US and Iran, tend to cause initial negative market reactions (first 24 hours), followed by a recovery unless there is significant escalation (e.g., confirmed casualties or infrastructure damage beyond initial reports). This pattern is most evident in broad market indices like SPY and tech stocks.
- formingGeopolitical de-escalation (e.g., a conditional ceasefire) leads to short-term (24-48h) positive market reactions, particularly in broad market indices like SPY and small-cap indices like IWM.
- formingCeasefire announcements, even if perceived as temporary or conditional, consistently trigger short-term (24-48 hour) positive market reactions, particularly in broad market indices (SPY) and tech stocks (QQQ), overriding concerns about underlying geopolitical tensions.
- formingPredictions of broad market indices (SPY, VIX) based solely on geopolitical events or Fed announcements have a low probability of accuracy; Company specific news, especially in the tech sector and related to AI, is a stronger driver of market performance in the very short term.
- formingPredictions with a short time horizon (24-48 hours) based on broad market indices (SPY, QQQ) and geopolitical events alone consistently auto-expire without resolution, indicating the need for more granular data or a longer time horizon for these relationships to manifest. Company-specific events overrule geopolitical movements within 24-48h.