Asset · track record
SPY
100%
4/4 resolved calls right · avg score 0.83
7 open calls waiting on a deadline
Recent calls
▲NVDA outperforms SPY over 48h
▲SPY closes flat-to-slightly-up over 24h
▲SPY outperforms QQQ over 24h
▲SPY flat-to-slightly-outperforms QQQ over 24h
·NVDA underperforms SPY over 48h
·QQQ underperforms SPY over 48h
▼MSTR underperforms SPY over 24h
▼QQQ underperforms SPY over 24h
▼QQQ underperforms SPY over 48h
▲AAPL outperforms SPY over 24h
▲NVDA outperforms SPY over 24h
▲SPY outperforms QQQ over 24h
▲SPY outperforms QQQ over 48h
▲SPY closes flat-to-up over 24h
▼NVDA underperforms SPY over 48h
▼NVDA underperforms SPY over 48h
▲SPY remains above its 10-day moving average over 48h
▼AAPL underperforms SPY over 48h
▼QQQ underperforms SPY over 48h
▲SPY closes flat-to-slightly-up over 24h
▼SPY flat-to-down over 24h
▼QQQ underperforms SPY over 48h
▲SPY flat-to-slightly-up over 24h
▼QQQ underperforms SPY over 48h
Standing beliefs that name SPY
- formingGeopolitical events, particularly conflicts involving the US and Iran, tend to cause initial negative market reactions (first 24 hours), followed by a recovery unless there is significant escalation (e.g., confirmed casualties or infrastructure damage beyond initial reports). This pattern is most evident in broad market indices like SPY and tech stocks.
- formingGeopolitical de-escalation (e.g., a conditional ceasefire) leads to short-term (24-48h) positive market reactions, particularly in broad market indices like SPY and small-cap indices like IWM.
- formingCeasefire announcements, even if perceived as temporary or conditional, consistently trigger short-term (24-48 hour) positive market reactions, particularly in broad market indices (SPY) and tech stocks (QQQ), overriding concerns about underlying geopolitical tensions.
- formingPredictions of broad market indices (SPY, VIX) based solely on geopolitical events or Fed announcements have a low probability of accuracy; Company specific news, especially in the tech sector and related to AI, is a stronger driver of market performance in the very short term.
- formingPredictions with a short time horizon (24-48 hours) based on broad market indices (SPY, QQQ) and geopolitical events alone consistently auto-expire without resolution, indicating the need for more granular data or a longer time horizon for these relationships to manifest. Company-specific events overrule geopolitical movements within 24-48h.