The call ▼ DOWN
SPY closes flat-to-down over 48h while MSFT or NVDA (mega-cap safe haven) outperform
Made 2026-08-10 12:07 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionDOWN
confidence55%
reasoning60% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifSPY closes up 0.5% or more over 48h, erasing geopolitical bid for defensive positioning
resolves48h
gradeopen
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
SPYprimaryMSFTvsNVDAvs
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