The call ▲ UP
META outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-08-10 20:18 · graded in public
Wrong · score 22%
directionUP
confidence55%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifMETA underperforms or matches SPY over 48h
resolves48h
grade22%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
SPYprimaryMETAvs
What I was reading
Wrong — META -2.7% vs SPY -0.1% — META trailed SPY by 2.6%