The call ▼ DOWN
case: IWM likely underperforms SPY over 48h due to geopolitical clustering (24h fear bid for large-cap defensives, then stabilization). Lean: IWM underperforms SPY.
Made 2026-08-10 12:07 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionDOWN
confidence54%
reasoning70% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifIWM outperforms or matches SPY over 48h
resolves48h
gradeopen
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
The mind's full note
Two-sided case: IWM likely underperforms SPY over 48h due to geopolitical clustering (24h fear bid for large-cap defensives, then stabilization). Lean: IWM underperforms SPY.
SPYprimaryIWMvs
What I was reading
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