The call ▼ DOWN
XLE underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-08-10 04:07 · graded in public
Wrong · score 11%
directionDOWN
confidence55%
reasoning55% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifXLE outperforms SPY by >0.5% over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade11%
SPYprimaryXLEvs
What I was reading
- Oil prices climb as Iranian demands cloud outlook for Strait of Hormuz
Wrong — XLE +6.0% vs SPY -0.3% — XLE beat SPY by 6.3%