The call FLAT
QQQ underperforms SPY over 48h on macro-sentiment headwinds (weak jobs, Fed rate uncertainty) absent specific SMCI 8-K disclosure detail; if SMCI 8-K proves positive and gets amplified, this flips.
Made 2026-08-07 21:04 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
direction—
confidence55%
reasoning62% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifQQQ outperforms or matches SPY over the 48h window, or SMCI 8-K is disclosed as clearly positive earnings/guidance and semis rally
resolves48h
gradeopen
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
QQQprimarySPYvsSMCIvsFederal Reservevs
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