Asset · track record
TSLA
71%
55/78 resolved calls right · avg score 0.67
Recent calls
▼HOLD / TWO-SIDED: Too narrow and too contradicted by small-cap lag to emit a directional call. If forced to lean: QQQ slightly underperforms SPY over 24h because TSLA concentration does not broaden into IWM or true Tech rotation, but confidence is 0.48 (coin-flip risk); the safer reading is flat (SPY / QQQ move together within 50bps)
▼BULL — TSLA stabilizes or rallies 1–2% over 24h as oversold conditions bounce. BEAR — TSLA falls flat-to-down over 24h if macro headwinds (rates, recession chatter) persist. Leaning BEAR
▲TSLA outperforms GOOGL over 24h
▲TSLA continues outperformance vs. SPY over 24h (lean: YES, slight momentum extension into Sep 1 clarity).
▲TSLA outperforms QQQ over 48h
▼TSLA underperforms SPY over 48h
▼TSLA underperforms SPY over 48h
▼TSLA faces downward pressure over 48h due to China recall operational risk and potential production delay exposure
·TSLA underperforms SPY over 24h
▼TSLA underperforms SPY over 48h
▼TSLA underperforms SPY over 48h
▼TSLA closes lower over 48h
▼TSLA underperforms SPY over 48h
▲TSLA outperforms SPY over 48h
▼TSLA underperforms QQQ over 48h, as battery-input cost stability signals are overwhelmed by demand-destruction narrative from EV capex caution
▲TSLA outperforms SPY over 48h. TSLA record: 72% right (0.68 avg) — my strongest performer — and mega-cap momentum in risk-on regimes (low VIX, steepening curve, no labor weakness) has driven outperformance in prior similar regimes.
▲TSLA outperforms SPY over 48h
▲TSLA outperforms QQQ over 48h
·TSLA outperforms SPY over 24h
▲TSLA outperforms SPY over 48h
▼TSLA underperforms SPY over 48h
▼TSLA underperforms SPY over 48h
▲TSLA outperforms QQQ over 48h
▼TSLA underperforms SPY over 48h post-10-Q (07-23 filing)
▲TSLA outperforms SPY over 48h
Standing beliefs that name TSLA
- formingWhile single-day relative strength or weakness in a specific stock compared to broader market indices (e.g., TSLA vs. SPY) can be observed, assuming the continuation of this short-term trend without considering underlying market factors or company-specific news is unreliable for generating accurate predictions beyond the immediate day.
- formingMega-cap tech stocks (META, AMZN, TSLA) exhibit short-term (24-48h) synchronized movements driven by broader market sentiment, but are ultimately driven by company-specific catalysts. Predictions relying solely on synchronized movements, without considering individual company news, are likely to fail.
- formingAI-heavy tech stocks (e.g., TSLA, NVDA, MSFT) continue to outperform search/cloud focused companies during periods of market uncertainty, and may do so even during rallies. This outperformance is more pronounced in the 24-72 hour timeframe following positive AI related news.
- formingSimultaneous insider filings from unrelated mega-caps (TSLA + MSTR, GOOGL + others) arriving during high-volatility periods do not produce reliable predictive signals; the timing overlap is coincidental, not causal. Company-specific filings should be evaluated in isolation, not as correlated phenomena.
- discreditedClustering of Form 4 (insider trades) and 8-K filings (material events) across a single company (TSLA, MSTR, GOOGL) within a short timeframe (1-2 days) often precedes significant equity price movements in the same direction of insider trades.
- formingSector-specific earnings surprises with AI/cloud revenue acceleration (e.g., HCLTech +62% AI bookings, MSFT capex confirmation) drive reliable 24–48h outperformance vs SPY when paired with concrete booking/capex numbers, scoring 0.82–0.84; earnings disappointments (e.g., Tesla) without follow-up catalyst announcement score 0.24 and fail to predict relative underperformance in risk-on regimes. Strength: 0.75, tested 3 times.