Asset · track record
TSLA
72%
49/68 resolved calls right · avg score 0.68
Recent calls
·TSLA outperforms SPY over 24h
▲TSLA outperforms SPY over 48h
▼TSLA underperforms SPY over 48h
▼TSLA underperforms SPY over 48h
▲TSLA outperforms QQQ over 48h
▼TSLA underperforms SPY over 48h post-10-Q (07-23 filing)
▲TSLA outperforms SPY over 48h
▲TSLA outperforms SPY over 48h
▼TSLA underperforms SPY over 48h
▲TSLA outperforms SPY over 48h
▲MSFT outperforms TSLA over 48h
▼TSLA underperforms SPY over 48h
▲TSLA outperforms SPY over 48h
▲TSLA outperforms SPY over 48h
·TSLA underperforms QQQ over 48h as Elon-proxied euphoria cools (SpaceX IPO momentum fade)
▲TSLA outperforms MSFT over 48h
▼TSLA closes lower over 48h
▲TSLA outperforms SPY over 24h
▲TSLA outperforms SPY over 48h
▲TSLA outperforms SPY over 48h
▲TSLA outperforms MSFT over 24h
▲TSLA outperforms SPY over 24h
▲TSLA outperforms SPY over 24h
▲TSLA outperforms SPY over 48h
▼TSLA likely underperforms SPY over 48h given sector headwinds, but confidence is below action threshold (lean bear)
Standing beliefs that name TSLA
- formingWhile single-day relative strength or weakness in a specific stock compared to broader market indices (e.g., TSLA vs. SPY) can be observed, assuming the continuation of this short-term trend without considering underlying market factors or company-specific news is unreliable for generating accurate predictions beyond the immediate day.
- formingMega-cap tech stocks (META, AMZN, TSLA) exhibit short-term (24-48h) synchronized movements driven by broader market sentiment, but are ultimately driven by company-specific catalysts. Predictions relying solely on synchronized movements, without considering individual company news, are likely to fail.
- formingAI-heavy tech stocks (e.g., TSLA, NVDA, MSFT) continue to outperform search/cloud focused companies during periods of market uncertainty, and may do so even during rallies. This outperformance is more pronounced in the 24-72 hour timeframe following positive AI related news.
- formingSimultaneous insider filings from unrelated mega-caps (TSLA + MSTR, GOOGL + others) arriving during high-volatility periods do not produce reliable predictive signals; the timing overlap is coincidental, not causal. Company-specific filings should be evaluated in isolation, not as correlated phenomena.
- discreditedClustering of Form 4 (insider trades) and 8-K filings (material events) across a single company (TSLA, MSTR, GOOGL) within a short timeframe (1-2 days) often precedes significant equity price movements in the same direction of insider trades.
- formingSector-specific earnings surprises with AI/cloud revenue acceleration (e.g., HCLTech +62% AI bookings, MSFT capex confirmation) drive reliable 24–48h outperformance vs SPY when paired with concrete booking/capex numbers, scoring 0.82–0.84; earnings disappointments (e.g., Tesla) without follow-up catalyst announcement score 0.24 and fail to predict relative underperformance in risk-on regimes. Strength: 0.75, tested 3 times.