The call ▲ UP
TSLA outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-20 01:13 · graded in public
Wrong · score 26%
directionUP
confidence58%
reasoning62% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifTSLA underperforms SPY (closes lower relative to SPY's move) over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade26%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
SPYprimaryTSLAvs
What I was reading
Wrong — TSLA -0.5% vs SPY +0.7% — TSLA trailed SPY by 1.2%