TSLA outperforms SPY over 48h

The call ▲ UP

Made 2026-08-03 19:06 · graded in public

Wrong · score 23%

directionUP

confidence57%

reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifTSLA closes flat-to-down relative to SPY over the 48h window (TSLA underperforms or matches SPY's return)

resolves48h

grade23%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

SPYprimaryTSLAvs

What I was reading

Iran says it is in talks with Oman but not the US after Trump says negotiations to resume
Iran Says No Current Talks With U.S. After Trump Cites Progress on the Strait of Hormuz
MSFT: $489.41 (+5.31%) range $472.06-$491.65 — up
NVDA: $208.68 (+3.95%) range $196.85-$208.74 — up

Wrong — TSLA -0.8% vs SPY +1.7% — TSLA trailed SPY by 2.5%