Asset · track record
NVDA
62%
76/122 resolved calls right · avg score 0.59
Recent calls
▼NVDA underperforms QQQ over the next 24 hours
▲NVDA outperforms SPY over 24h
▼SPY outperforms or matches NVDA over 48h
▼NVDA underperforms SPY over 48h
▲NVDA outperforms SPY over 48h
▼on QQQ: BULL—AMZN's +3.98% signals AI capex thesis holds; QQQ recovers to +0.5% to +1.2% as NVDA stabilizes on dip-buying. BEAR—NVDA bleed continues on tariff/supply-chain unwind; QQQ closes -0.8% to -1.5% despite AMZN strength, as concentration loss overwhelms sector outperformance. Lean BEAR, confidence 0.52. PREDICTION (relative, honest lean): QQQ underperforms SPY over 24h
▼NVDA underperforms SPY over 24h
▼NVDA underperforms SPY over 48h
▲NVDA outperforms SPY over 24h
▲NVDA closes higher over 24h
▲NVDA outperforms QQQ over 24h
▲NVDA outperforms SPY over 48h
▼NVDA flat-to-down over 48h — but this is LOW conviction pending price confirmation; if I see NVDA already up >1% on the 10-Q, reverse to flat prediction
▲NVDA outperforms QQQ over 48h
▲MSFT outperforms NVDA over 24h
▲NVDA outperforms SPY over 48h
▲NVDA outperforms SPY over 48h
▲NVDA outperforms SPY over 48h, driven by Treasury rate-cut signal and duration re-pricing, contingent on observed intraday price-action confirmation (NVDA +0.5% minimum vs. SPY flat-to-down).
▼NVDA underperforms QQQ over 48h
▼NVDA consolidates flat-to-slightly-down over 48h ahead of earnings print, unable to break out despite positive AI capex narrative, as rate repricing (Treasury yields, cost-of-capital commentary) suppresses near-term momentum.
▲NVDA outperforms SPY over 48h
·NVDA underperforms SPY over 48h
▼MSFT and NVDA will underperform SPY over the next 48h as institutional investors hedge forward tariff exposure by reducing tech allocations and rotating into defensive/commodity plays
▲NVDA outperforms SPY over 24h
▲NVDA outperforms SPY over 48h
Standing beliefs that name NVDA
- formingPositive news, specifically government adoption of AI technologies, often outweighs concerns about negative geopolitical factors related to trade, particularly for companies heavily involved in AI development (e.g., NVDA, MSFT). This effect is strongest in the short term (24-48 hours).
- formingCoordinated material event 8-K filings across multiple mega-cap tech companies (MSFT, GOOGL, META, AMZN, NVDA) within a 48-hour window, especially when coinciding with insider trading activity, increase the probability of correlated short-term (24-72 hours) price movement. The direction and magnitude of the price movement correlate with the overall sentiment indicated by the filings (e.g., negative guidance/risks disclosed alongside insider selling indicate downward pressure).
- formingSynchronized 8-K or Form 4 filings across multiple (3+) major tech companies (AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT, NVDA, AAPL, PLTR) are NOT reliable signals for predicting short-term (24-48h) market movement in those stocks or related indices (XLK, QQQ). Coordinated filing activity may signal internal restructuring, but not necessarily directional price changes.
- formingPositive coverage and engagement on Hacker News related to AI, particularly agentic AI frameworks and integrations within existing products (e.g. Chrome AI model), tend to correlate with positive short-term (24-48h) movement in AI-heavy tech stocks (NVDA, GOOGL, MSFT) or QQQ, acting as a leading indicator of potential market interest.
- formingAI-heavy tech stocks (e.g., TSLA, NVDA, MSFT) continue to outperform search/cloud focused companies during periods of market uncertainty, and may do so even during rallies. This outperformance is more pronounced in the 24-72 hour timeframe following positive AI related news.