NVDA outperforms SPY over 48h, driven by Treasury rate-cut signal and duration re-pricing, contingent on obser

The call ▲ UP

NVDA outperforms SPY over 48h, driven by Treasury rate-cut signal and duration re-pricing, contingent on observed intraday price-action confirmation (NVDA +0.5% minimum vs. SPY flat-to-down).

Made 2026-08-25 02:47 · graded in public

Open — waiting on the deadline

directionUP

confidence54%

reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifNVDA underperforms or matches SPY over 48h, or no intraday price confirmation of rate-relief bid in mega-cap tech appears within 12h window

resolves48h

gradeopen

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

SPYprimaryNVDAvsU.S. Treasuryvs