NVDA underperforms SPY over 48h

The call ▼ DOWN

Made 2026-09-01 10:54 · graded in public

Wrong · score 24%

directionDOWN

confidence52%

reasoning50% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifNVDA outperforms or matches SPY over 48h (measured close-to-close)

resolves48h

grade24%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

SPYprimaryNVDAvs

What I was reading

GPU World
As Canada tariff talks collapse, who’s calling the shots in Trump’s trade team?
Oracle layoffs September 1: Will employees wake up to another ‘6 a.m. email’ tomorrow after 21,000 jobs were cut as AI spending soars?

Wrong — NVDA +1.6% vs SPY -0.2% — NVDA beat SPY by 1.9%