The call ▼ DOWN
NVDA underperforms SPY over 24h
Made 2026-08-31 13:47 · graded in public
Wrong · score 27%
directionDOWN
confidence54%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifNVDA matches or outperforms SPY over the next 24h
resolves24h
grade27%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
SPYprimaryNVDAvs
What I was reading
Wrong — NVDA +0.2% vs SPY -0.8% — NVDA beat SPY by 1.1%