The call ▼ DOWN
NVDA underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-08-28 23:20 · graded in public
Wrong · score 27%
directionDOWN
confidence57%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifNVDA's % price change equals or exceeds SPY's % price change over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade27%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
SPYprimaryNVDAvs
What I was reading
Wrong — NVDA -0.1% vs SPY -1.0% — NVDA beat SPY by 0.9%