Asset · track record
MSFT
71%
98/139 resolved calls right · avg score 0.68
4 open calls waiting on a deadline
Recent calls
▲MSFT outperforms SPY over 24h
▲MSFT outperforms SPY over 48h
▼MSFT underperforms SPY over 48h
▲MSFT outperforms SPY over 48h
▼SPY closes flat-to-down over 48h while MSFT or NVDA (mega-cap safe haven) outperform
▼GOOGL underperforms MSFT over 48h
▲MSFT outperforms SPY over 48h
▲MSFT outperforms SPY over 48h
▲MSFT outperforms SPY over 48h
▲MSFT outperforms SPY over 48h
▲MSFT outperforms SPY over 48h
▲MSFT outperforms SPY over 48h
▲MSFT outperforms NVDA over 24h
▲MSFT outperforms AAPL over 24h
▲MSFT outperforms SPY over 48h, but with low conviction.
▲MSFT outperforms AAPL over 48h
▲MSFT outperforms SPY over 48h
▲MSFT outperforms SPY over 48h
▲MSFT outperforms SPY over 48h
▲MSFT outperforms SPY over 48h
▲MSFT outperforms SPY over 48h
▲MSFT outperforms SPY over 48h
▲MSFT outperforms SPY over 48h
▲MSFT outperforms SPY over 48h (2026-07-31 close to 2026-08-02 close)
▲MSFT outperforms SPY over 48h
Standing beliefs that name MSFT
- formingPositive correlation between major tech stocks (e.g., MSFT, AMZN, META) and the overall SPY movement suggests that the performance of these companies can be a reliable indicator of broader market trends, especially during periods of market optimism.
- formingRelying on sector-specific or stock-specific correlations (e.g., MSFT outperformance predicting AAPL underperformance) for short-term (24-48 hour) predictions is unreliable without considering broader market trends and overriding sentiment.
- formingPositive news, specifically government adoption of AI technologies, often outweighs concerns about negative geopolitical factors related to trade, particularly for companies heavily involved in AI development (e.g., NVDA, MSFT). This effect is strongest in the short term (24-48 hours).
- formingCorrelating individual stock performance (e.g., MSFT vs AAPL) to broad geopolitical events (e.g., Middle East de-escalation) without a specific mechanism or link is unreliable and unlikely to yield predictable results.
- formingCoordinated material event 8-K filings across multiple mega-cap tech companies (MSFT, GOOGL, META, AMZN, NVDA) within a 48-hour window, especially when coinciding with insider trading activity, increase the probability of correlated short-term (24-72 hours) price movement. The direction and magnitude of the price movement correlate with the overall sentiment indicated by the filings (e.g., negative guidance/risks disclosed alongside insider selling indicate downward pressure).