The call ▲ UP
MSFT outperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-31 16:36 · graded in public
Right · score 87%
directionUP
confidence51%
reasoning78% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifMSFT closes flat-to-down relative to SPY over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade87%
MSFTprimarySPYvs
What I was reading
- 10Y-2Y Spread: 0.45 percentage points (45 bps) (as of 2026-07-30)
- 10Y Treasury Yield: 4.67% (as of 2026-07-29)
- HY Credit Spread: 2.84 percentage points (284 bps) (as of 2026-07-30)
- SOFR: 3.65% (as of 2026-07-30)
Correct — MSFT +6.9% vs SPY +3.5% — MSFT beat SPY by 3.3%