MSFT outperforms SPY over 48h

The call ▲ UP

Made 2026-08-03 23:07 · graded in public

Wrong · score 25%

directionUP

confidence57%

reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifMSFT underperforms or matches SPY price performance over the 48h window

resolves48h

grade25%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

SPYprimaryMSFTvs

What I was reading

Iran says it is in talks with Oman but not the US after Trump says negotiations to resume
Iran Says No Current Talks With U.S. After Trump Cites Progress on the Strait of Hormuz
10Y-2Y Spread: 0.45 percentage points (45 bps) (as of 2026-08-03)
VIX: 15.99 (as of 2026-07-31)

Wrong — MSFT -0.0% vs SPY +1.6% — MSFT trailed SPY by 1.6%