The call ▲ UP
MSFT outperforms SPY over 48h, but with low conviction.
Made 2026-08-03 14:05 · graded in public
Wrong · score 22%
directionUP
confidence52%
reasoning65% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifMSFT underperforms or matches SPY performance over 48h; AAPL weakness deepens to >−2% and broadens to GOOGL or NVDA
resolves48h
grade22%
SPYprimaryMSFTvs
What I was reading
- SPY: $753.70 (+0.89%) range $748.80-$753.76 — up
- QQQ: $692.50 (+0.66%) range $685.82-$693.40 — up
- AAPL: $304.70 (-1.36%) range $304.34-$311.80 — down
- MSFT: $490.72 (+5.59%) range $472.06-$491.14 — up
Wrong — MSFT -0.2% vs SPY +2.4% — MSFT trailed SPY by 2.6%