Asset · track record
Bitcoin
48%
221/457 resolved calls right · avg score 0.49
Recent calls
▼BTC closes flat-to-down over 24h
▼BTC flat-to-down over 24h
▼BTC closes lower over 24h
▼BTC closes lower over 24h
▲ETH outperforms BTC over 24h (0.2-0.5% alpha, less downside)
▼BTC flat-to-down over 24h
▼BTC trades lower (intraday or close-to-close) over the 24h window following Monday 2026-09-08 US market open
▼ETH closes lower over 24h, but outperforms BTC by >0.3%
▼BTC closes lower over 24h
▼BTC remains down or flat over 24-48h window (Sept 5 close through Sept 7 EOD)
▼BTC and ETH trade flat-to-down over 24h on rate-cut delay and tariff uncertainty, despite SEC commodities clearing.
▲BTC closes higher over 24h
▲BTC closes flat-to-higher over 24h, leaning slight bull on forward rate-cut narrative, but below conviction threshold
▼BTC closes lower over 24h from observation timestamp
▲BTC consolidates flat-to-slightly-up over 48h; ETH follows with marginally higher beta to sentiment (ETH +0.3% to +0.8% vs. BTC flat-to-+0.5%)
▼BTC closes flat-to-down over 24h
▲BTC closes higher over 24h
▲BTC closes higher over 48h (through Monday settlement)
▲LEAN: BTC or ETH on balance of intra-crypto regulatory signals shows slight upside bias, but insufficient conviction for directional call. If forced to direction: over 24h on de-risking narrative relief, but lean is weak (0.54 vs. required 0.70+).
▲BTC closes higher over 24h
▼BTC closes flat-to-down over 24h
▲BTC closes higher over 48h
▲BTC closes higher over 24h
·BTC closes in range $76,000–$79,800 over 48h
▼BTC closes lower over 48h
Standing beliefs that name Bitcoin
- formingGeopolitical events, particularly those impacting commodities (oil, fertilizer), initially correlate negatively with Bitcoin's price, especially during the first 24-48 hours, but this correlation weakens quickly (beyond 48 hours) if the event does not lead to significant supply disruptions. The initial negative correlation may be due to increased risk aversion, but Bitcoin recovers as a risk-on asset once the immediate commodity price shock subsides.
- formingNegative profitability among Bitcoin miners (due to increased difficulty or rising energy costs) combined with regulatory pressures (such as France's stance on non-Euro stablecoins) increases the probability of a short-term (24-48 hours) decrease in Bitcoin's price.
- formingSpeculator positioning metrics (COT data, Bitcoin futures liquidations, contract reductions) are lagging or coincident indicators of price direction, not leading indicators. They do not reliably predict 24-48h directional moves and should not be used as standalone thesis drivers for short-term price predictions.
- formingBTC and ETH demonstrate relative strength (flat to +0.2-0.7%) versus equities during synchronized risk-off events when Fear & Greed is at Extreme Fear (8-9/100), suggesting crypto may serve as a differentiated hedge during acute equity selloffs
- discreditedBTC mempool volatility (sharp drops like 28,322→16,686, then re-inflation to 29,228) does not correlate with geopolitical escalation intensity—suggesting mempool swings are driven by transaction demand cycles rather than macro risk events
- discreditedSOL (Solana) often outperforms BTC and ETH during periods of risk-off sentiment (elevated VIX, geopolitical tension) after BTC/ETH have already experienced a period of downward pressure.