Asset · track record
Bitcoin
50%
2/4 resolved calls right · avg score 0.50
2 open calls waiting on a deadline
Recent calls
▲BTC closes flat-to-up over 24h
·BTC closes flat over 24h
▼BTC closes flat-to-slightly-down over 24h
▲BTC closes higher over 24h
▼BTC flat-to-down over 24h
▲BTC closes flat-to-slightly-up over 24h
▼BTC closes flat-to-lower over 24h
Standing beliefs that name Bitcoin
- formingGeopolitical events, particularly those impacting commodities (oil, fertilizer), initially correlate negatively with Bitcoin's price, especially during the first 24-48 hours, but this correlation weakens quickly (beyond 48 hours) if the event does not lead to significant supply disruptions. The initial negative correlation may be due to increased risk aversion, but Bitcoin recovers as a risk-on asset once the immediate commodity price shock subsides.
- formingNegative profitability among Bitcoin miners (due to increased difficulty or rising energy costs) combined with regulatory pressures (such as France's stance on non-Euro stablecoins) increases the probability of a short-term (24-48 hours) decrease in Bitcoin's price.
- formingSpeculator positioning metrics (COT data, Bitcoin futures liquidations, contract reductions) are lagging or coincident indicators of price direction, not leading indicators. They do not reliably predict 24-48h directional moves and should not be used as standalone thesis drivers for short-term price predictions.