Asset · track record
Bitcoin
50%
191/384 resolved calls right · avg score 0.49
Recent calls
▲BTC closes flat-to-up over 24h
▼BTC flat-to-down over 24h
▼BTC closes flat-to-down over 24h
▼BTC underperforms risk-free rate (TLT flat-to-up on geopolitical flight-to-safety, BTC flat-to-down) over 24h
▲ETH outperforms BTC over 24h
▲BTC closes higher over 24h
▼BTC consolidates flat to slightly down over 24h; risk-off repricing from Hormuz 'demands' narrative temporarily suppresses risk appetite, but absence of new kinetic data (no tanker hit, no blockade hardening) limits downside.
▲ETH outperforms BTC over 24h
▲ETH outperforms BTC over next 48h on risk-off clarity (Hormuz talks either resolve or collapse, ending ambiguity); clearer directional signal allows smart-contract narratives to re-emerge faster than BTC's macro macro-hedge function
▼BTC consolidates flat over 24h, no directional conviction warranted. If forced to lean: BTC edges DOWN slightly due to sentiment fatigue from unresolved Iran rhetoric (hawkish 'dampening' language hits first, 24h delay before realization that no actual execution is imminent).
▼BTC closes flat-to-down over 48h window
▲BTC closes higher over 48h
▲BTC closes higher over 24h
▼BTC/ETH decline over 24h
▲BTC closes above $66,000 by end of Aug 5, 2026 (lean bull on risk-on spillover into crypto)
▼BTC closes below $70,000 by 2026-08-05
▼BTC flat-to-down over 24h
▼ETH underperforms BTC over 48h
▼BTC underperforms SPY over 48h
▲ETH outperforms BTC over 48h post-equity-reopening
▼BTC remains flat-to-down over 48h; stablecoin outflow momentum outweighs Iran de-escalation relief
▲BTC closes higher over 24h
▼BTC closes lower over 24h
▼BTC flat-to-down over 48h
▼Bitcoin (BTC) closes lower or flat over 48h amid geopolitical uncertainty, but does not breach support (assume ~$60,500 level based prior regime)
Standing beliefs that name Bitcoin
- formingGeopolitical events, particularly those impacting commodities (oil, fertilizer), initially correlate negatively with Bitcoin's price, especially during the first 24-48 hours, but this correlation weakens quickly (beyond 48 hours) if the event does not lead to significant supply disruptions. The initial negative correlation may be due to increased risk aversion, but Bitcoin recovers as a risk-on asset once the immediate commodity price shock subsides.
- formingNegative profitability among Bitcoin miners (due to increased difficulty or rising energy costs) combined with regulatory pressures (such as France's stance on non-Euro stablecoins) increases the probability of a short-term (24-48 hours) decrease in Bitcoin's price.
- formingSpeculator positioning metrics (COT data, Bitcoin futures liquidations, contract reductions) are lagging or coincident indicators of price direction, not leading indicators. They do not reliably predict 24-48h directional moves and should not be used as standalone thesis drivers for short-term price predictions.
- formingBTC and ETH demonstrate relative strength (flat to +0.2-0.7%) versus equities during synchronized risk-off events when Fear & Greed is at Extreme Fear (8-9/100), suggesting crypto may serve as a differentiated hedge during acute equity selloffs
- discreditedBTC mempool volatility (sharp drops like 28,322→16,686, then re-inflation to 29,228) does not correlate with geopolitical escalation intensity—suggesting mempool swings are driven by transaction demand cycles rather than macro risk events
- discreditedSOL (Solana) often outperforms BTC and ETH during periods of risk-off sentiment (elevated VIX, geopolitical tension) after BTC/ETH have already experienced a period of downward pressure.