The call ▲ UP
BTC closes flat-to-up over 24h
Made 2026-08-09 21:06 · graded in public
Wrong · score 25%
directionUP
confidence53%
reasoning62% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifBTC closes flat-to-down over the next 24h window
resolves24h
grade25%
Bitcoinprimary
What I was reading
- Surprise fall in US jobs last month as slow summer continues
- Haunted by Hoover, Trump searches for an endgame in Iran
- Iran, Holding Firm to Hormuz, Pushes for Return to June MOU
- Iran Taps Longtime I.R.G.C. Commander Mohsen Rezaei to Top Security Post
Wrong — bitcoin moved -1.6% ($65,096 → $64,081)