BTC flat-to-down over 48h

The call ▼ DOWN

Made 2026-08-01 15:38 · graded in public

Wrong · score 27%

directionDOWN

confidence54%

reasoning62% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifBTC closes higher than current price over the 48h window, OR a new kinetic supply disruption (refinery strike, tanker attack wire) is announced and reprices oil/macro regime into risk-on, pulling BTC higher

resolves48h

grade27%

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

Bitcoinprimary

What I was reading

How bitcoin cold wallets lost $70 million in an attack that never touched the devices
Russian Missiles Kill 9 in Kyiv After Trump Backs Off Air-Defense Pledge
In Iran, the U.S. Appears Headed for a Strategic Defeat, Allies Fear
Kuwait Says It Downed Iranian Drones as Mideast Braces for Possible Escalation

Wrong — bitcoin moved +1.0% ($63,000 → $63,612)