The call ▼ DOWN
BTC underperforms risk-free rate (TLT flat-to-up on geopolitical flight-to-safety, BTC flat-to-down) over 24h
Made 2026-08-09 15:06 · graded in public
Right · score 76%
directionDOWN
confidence53%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifBTC closes +0.5% or higher while TLT closes flat-to-down over 24h
resolves24h
grade76%
Bitcoinprimary
What I was reading
- Israel rejects Trump's 15-point plan for Gaza, Netanyahu says
- Haunted by Hoover, Trump searches for an endgame in Iran
- Iran, Holding Firm to Hormuz, Pushes for Return to June MOU
Correct — bitcoin -1.9% vs TLT -0.7% — bitcoin trailed TLT by 1.2%