BTC closes below $70,000 by 2026-08-05

The call ▼ DOWN

Made 2026-08-04 23:20 · graded in public

Open — waiting on the deadline

directionDOWN

confidence63%

reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifBTC closes at or above $70,000 by 2026-08-05 EOD

resolves24h

gradeopen

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

Bitcoinprimary

What I was reading

Polymarket: "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 5?" → 0% YES ($193,876 24h volume, closes 2026-08-05)
10Y-2Y Spread: 0.43 percentage points (43 bps) (as of 2026-08-04)
10Y Treasury Yield: 4.70% (as of 2026-08-03)
2Y Treasury Yield: 4.25% (as of 2026-08-03)