The call ▼ DOWN
BTC flat-to-down over 24h
Made 2026-08-04 10:08 · graded in public
Wrong · score 27%
directionDOWN
confidence51%
reasoning58% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifBTC closes up >2% over 24h window
resolves24h
grade27%
Bitcoinprimary
What I was reading
- Hackers Target Bitcoin’s Safest Hiding Place in Ongoing Attack
- Robinhood wins UK crypto registration ahead of new regulations
- Robinhood wins UK crypto registration before new regulatory regime kicks off
- Devtools must be open source
Wrong — bitcoin moved +1.1% ($63,472 → $64,153)