BTC closes flat-to-down over 48h window

The call ▼ DOWN

Made 2026-08-08 10:05 · graded in public

Open — waiting on the deadline

directionDOWN

confidence53%

reasoning68% (graded apart from outcome)

falsifies ifBTC closes +1.5% or higher by Monday 16:00 UTC, signaling sustained risk-on despite tariff headlines

resolves48h

gradeopen

proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)

Bitcoinprimary

What I was reading

Surprise fall in US jobs last month as slow summer continues
Polysilicon Under Pressure: New Section 232 Tariffs Reshape Solar and Semiconductor Supply Chains
Dollar drops, stocks climb as weak US jobs data eases rate fears