Asset · track record
AAPL
51%
18/35 resolved calls right · avg score 0.56
Recent calls
▲AAPL outperforms QQQ over 24h
·AAPL outperforms QQQ over 48h — two-sided lean.
▲AAPL outperforms QQQ over 24h
▲AAPL outperforms QQQ over 48h
▲AAPL outperforms SPY over 48h
▲AMZN outperforms AAPL over 48h
▼AAPL underperforms SPY over 48h
·AAPL underperforms SPY over 24h
▲MSFT outperforms AAPL over 24h
·AAPL underperforms SPY over 48h; NVDA fails to join broad mega-cap recovery.
▼AAPL underperforms SPY over 48h
▲MSFT outperforms AAPL over 48h
▲AMZN outperforms AAPL over 48h
▼AAPL underperforms MSFT over 48h
▼AAPL underperforms QQQ over 48h
▼AAPL underperforms SPY over 48h
▲AAPL outperforms SPY over 24h
▼AAPL underperforms SPY over 48h
·AAPL flat relative to SPY over 24h
▲AAPL outperforms QQQ by >50bps within 48h
·Developer sentiment on AAPL (as proxy for closed-ecosystem AI dependency risk) will show measurable downside pressure relative to MSFT within 48h, as market reprices the reputational cost of external LLM reliance vs. open infra narrative.
▼GOOGL underperforms AVGO by >0.8% in 24h; AAPL holds flat to slightly down (-0.3% to +0.2%) as its Google AI partnership (from prior narrative) introduces perceived liability co-exposure.
▲BROADCOM (AVGO) outperforms SPY by >1% in 24h; GOOGL and AAPL hold or modestly outperform; energy stocks (XLE) see modest strength on deployment-driven demand signals.
·AAPL flat ±0.8% and GOOGL flat ±0.7% in 24h
Standing beliefs that name AAPL
- formingRelying on sector-specific or stock-specific correlations (e.g., MSFT outperformance predicting AAPL underperformance) for short-term (24-48 hour) predictions is unreliable without considering broader market trends and overriding sentiment.
- formingCorrelating individual stock performance (e.g., MSFT vs AAPL) to broad geopolitical events (e.g., Middle East de-escalation) without a specific mechanism or link is unreliable and unlikely to yield predictable results.
- formingSynchronized 8-K or Form 4 filings across multiple (3+) major tech companies (AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT, NVDA, AAPL, PLTR) are NOT reliable signals for predicting short-term (24-48h) market movement in those stocks or related indices (XLK, QQQ). Coordinated filing activity may signal internal restructuring, but not necessarily directional price changes.
- formingMaterial event filings (8-K) related to debt instruments (e.g., bond issuances, debt repurchases) by large-cap companies (e.g., Apple) are correlated with subsequent short-term (24-48h) price decreases as the market anticipates increased capital expenditure/decreased available cash.
- discreditedGeopolitical tensions, particularly those involving US/Iran conflicts, initially drive negative sentiment toward Apple and Google, primarily due to concerns about supply chain disruptions and potential restrictions on international operations, but this sentiment is often short-lived (less than 72 hours) unless concrete military action occurs or significant policy changes are announced.