The call ▼ DOWN
AAPL underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-08-25 11:48 · graded in public
Wrong · score 28%
directionDOWN
confidence52%
reasoning62% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifAAPL outperforms or matches SPY returns over 48h
resolves48h
grade28%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
SPYprimaryAAPLvs
Wrong — AAPL +1.0% vs SPY +0.3% — AAPL beat SPY by 0.7%
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