The call ▼ DOWN
AAPL underperforms SPY over 48h
Made 2026-07-08 10:06 · graded in public
Wrong · score 26%
directionDOWN
confidence66%
reasoning85% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifAAPL outperforms or matches SPY over the 48h window
resolves48h
grade26%
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
AAPLprimarySPYvs
Wrong — AAPL +1.8% vs SPY +0.5% (spread +1.3%)
A Workshop call — every prediction scored, nothing hidden. Today's read →