Asset · track record
QQQ
57%
191/333 resolved calls right · avg score 0.55
Recent calls
▼QQQ underperforms SPY over 24h
▲QQQ outperforms SPY over 24h
▲QQQ outperforms SPY over 48h
▼QQQ vs SPY two-sided: Lean slightly down-relative to SPY over 48h, but confidence is low (0.52). BULL case: mega-cap AI capex (Google) underpins QQQ momentum. BEAR case: bond market resistance (782580, Treasury borrowing rejection) + forward tariff overhang (Sept 29 bans) compress risk appetite and hit mega-cap more than defensive SPY holdings.
▲QQQ outperforms SPY over 48h
▼QQQ underperforms SPY over 24h
▲QQQ outperforms SPY over 24h
▲— QQQ closes higher over 48h, driven by AI narrative relief, but this is a lean against headwind (tariff concerns, sticky macro regime)..
▲QQQ outperforms SPY over 48h
·QQQ underperforms SPY over 24h
▼QQQ vs SPY: LEAN DOWN — tariff escalation with no resolution date overrides narrative momentum; near-term supply-chain repricing dominates capex validation signals
▼QQQ closes flat-to-down over 24h, leaning down due to sectoral escalation signaling increased negotiation friction; however, acknowledge >40% probability that market treats Bombardier threat as contained (aerospace <1% of tech earnings) and maintains resilience.
·QQQ underperforms SPY over 48h
▼QQQ and SPY trade FLAT TO SLIGHTLY DOWN over 48h; IWM underperforms QQQ by -0.3% to -1.2%.
▼QQQ closes flat-to-slightly-down over 48h
·SPY will outperform QQQ (or match) over 48h, but lean is weak; honest two-sided assessment.
▼QQQ underperforms SPY over 24h
▼QQQ underperforms SPY over 48h — **CAVEAT: Low conviction (0.50). This is a two-sided case; bear case (Trump dovish narrative overrides jobs data faster than history suggests) has equal weight. Make this call ONLY if you are comfortable with coin-flip odds; prefer to hold cash on this cycle.**
▼QQQ likely flat-to-down over next 24-48h as bond yield repricing (real yields rising) compresses growth valuations; Trump rate-cut rhetoric is slower to translate into index price than duration compression.
▲QQQ outperforms SPY over 48h
▼QQQ flat-to-slight-underperformance vs SPY over 48h
▲QQQ outperforms SPY over 48h
▲QQQ outperforms SPY over 48h
▼QQQ underperforms SPY over 24h — mortgage rates at six-month highs signal Fed pivot narrative is broken; tech layoffs + duration headwind cascade into same-day repricing.
·TWO-SIDED: Bull case: QQQ outperforms SPY over 48h (rate-cut repricing, duration relief, capex resilience). Bear case: QQQ underperforms SPY over 48h (tariff headwind, layoff ripple, crisis regime persists). LEAN: Bull, but confidence = 0.50.
Standing beliefs that name QQQ
- formingCeasefire announcements, even if perceived as temporary or conditional, consistently trigger short-term (24-48 hour) positive market reactions, particularly in broad market indices (SPY) and tech stocks (QQQ), overriding concerns about underlying geopolitical tensions.
- formingPredictions with a short time horizon (24-48 hours) based on broad market indices (SPY, QQQ) and geopolitical events alone consistently auto-expire without resolution, indicating the need for more granular data or a longer time horizon for these relationships to manifest. Company-specific events overrule geopolitical movements within 24-48h.
- formingGeopolitical de-escalation news (ceasefires, talk of de-escalation) reliably generates short-term (24-48 hour) positive market reactions in broad indices (SPY, IWM) and technology stocks (QQQ), but individual stock performance is then more heavily influenced by company-specific news catalysts.
- formingBroad market rallies, indicated by simultaneous positive movements in SPY and IWM (at least +0.2%), can reliably predict short-term (24-hour) positive movement in QQQ, especially when no single mega-cap tech stock significantly underperforms.
- formingA broad positive trend across multiple major market indices (SPY, QQQ, IWM) within a short timeframe (e.g., 24 hours) is a reliable indicator of continued positive market sentiment and upward price movement in the immediate term (next 24 hours).