The call ▼ DOWN
QQQ likely flat-to-down over next 24-48h as bond yield repricing (real yields rising) compresses growth valuations; Trump rate-cut rhetoric is slower to translate into index price than duration compression.
Made 2026-09-04 19:25 · graded in public
Open — waiting on the deadline
directionDOWN
confidence53%
reasoning72% (graded apart from outcome)
falsifies ifQQQ closes up 0.5% or more over 24-48h window, or US 10Y yield drops >5bps despite El-Erian's sell-off thesis holding
resolves24h
gradeopen
proofSolana memo · hashed bytes + recipe (committed before the outcome)
QQQprimary
What I was reading
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